Hindalco....

Hindalco reached its target.... 150... around 3 months prior to the target date... I booked partial profit and moved the money to RNRL and RELPOW...

I am still buying satyam on dips... it is still to pick up.. once the result date nears... which would be in July 2010... it will start gathering steam...

Satyam Updates

Well satyam got battered today, has gone down by 8%.... well I booked partial profit in central bank like I said in earlier post. Have moved the proceeds to satyam. I feel satyam is going to come out with very strong results in July. And every dip like this in Satyam I feel is buying opportunity.

Updates on stock tips...

Central bank has met its target of 150... much earlier than expected... it has posted very strong results last two quarter hence it is going up for quite some time...

At this point I recommend partial profit booking and taking your principal out, keep the remaining "free" shares for futhur gains...

There are couple of stocks to watch punj loyd and sterling biotech. They look attractive... need to do some further research on them before I can recommend them to put in the stock tips portfolio.

So far, two stocks have met the target central bank and rolta india...

here is the updated portfolio details...

Ups and Downs...

The past two weeks has seen some great seesaw. From highs of 5100 it went down to 4500 and then again we are now at 4800. 4500 gave a great opportunity to buy good stocks which would fetch handsome returns in future.

Suzlon energy got beaten down to 53. I bought some stocks on dips on two lots, at 54 and at 63.

Similarly reliance power got hammered, I bought some at 143. Wait till Dadri plant goes live in 2011 or 2012 it would go and reach 400. If you can keep it for for 5 years it will give multibagger kind of result. Compare it with Tata Power and you will understand what I am referring to.

I am again saying Satyam is a great story in making. Get it before the results are declared in Jul, there is still some time, but then you may not find it at 100Rs for long. It will catch with the big boys once the audited accounts are out. It recently got 300M deal, along with that its order book will continue to grow, it will not fall.

I booked profits in HOCL and partial profits in JK tyres. Moved the proceeds to suzlon, reliance power and satyam.

One trader stock which I would recommend for strong heart people is deccan gold. I have bought it at multiple price. They are in exploration and production of gold. With gold prices going up like anything, this thing will fly. The only stumbling block, which is huge one, is govt. It is taking long time to form mining policy and hence it is taking long time for deccan gold to start mining golds from couple of areas where they have found gold. Hopefully, this winter session the mining policy gets frozen. If that happens this would easily reach 50 to 60 Rs. It is currently quoting at 39Rs. Though this is a braveheart stock, I will put it in the list of stock tips portfolio. So, if you are ready to gamble a little, go ahead with deccan gold. If you are conservative in nature then please stay away from it.

Another trader stock is Quintegra Solution. Currently quoting at 8.95. I would wait till it goes to 6 before plunging in. It oscillates from 6 to 15 Rs range and can give quick returns in short span of time. Again this is extremely risky stock so depending on your appetite you can take your decision. I made some little money in this stock in 2 months time when I bought at 7 and sold around 14 some months ago.

Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before buying any stock.

Happy Deepavali...

आप सबको दीपावली की सुभ सुभ कामनाये... यह दीपावली आप और आपके स्नेही जानो को मंगल मई रहे...

ॐ श्री लक्ष्मी देवी नमः....

सेंसेक्स २१००० से भी ज्यादा बढे और स्टॉक टिप का पोर्टफोलियो भी...

ॐ श्री गणेशाय नमः...

जय हिंद....

जय जय गरवी गुजरात...

बढो बढो और बढो... ईमानदारी से बढो.... :)....

Central Bank...

The target for central bank is achieved... 150 Rs... and surprisingly it came earlier than I expected..

P/E vise it still has some scope to grow may be reach 200Rs...

Central bank is second largest bank after SBI in terms of number of branches. They are working on getting those branches rake in more moolah so that they can land it out and make more money...

I would recommend booking partial profit and keep this bank for long term ... as it may become next SBI in years to come... watch out for NREGA...

As for tip, keep watching for Moser Baer... they are investing heavily in solar based photovoltic power plants... still nascent technology but it can give huge dividend going forward as India is highly power starved country and we need more power plants...

Sorry for not giving tip for long time, have been busy with some personal and project stuff...

Rolta Target Achieved...

Rolta target of 180 has reached, it is now quoting at 185... tip given on 25-May. Target date was 6 month. Rolta exceeded expectation and reached in less than 4 months...

I would book partial profit in Rolta, it is can go up to 200 and then stabilise around 250.

attached is the stock tip performance.

Satyam....

The satyam saga has come to an end long time back... Mahindra got what it needed to bring its IT division to big boy's league consisting of Infy, TCS, Wipro....

The reason satyam is being recommended that inspite of the scandal.. it is still a 2 BUSD company... and it is trading at a PE of only 5.8 when the industry PE is 18... with good management in place it wont take long for FII to come back to the shares in herd like they used to do in past... expect this share to be added to F&O segment too.

On a conservative estimate the stock would be rerated and would make it to 200 Rs easily in a year's time.

I recommend a buy on satyam purely on the basis of its fundamentals which got ignored because of the scandal...

Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before buying any shares.

I bought some shares of satyam today.

Updates....

Nifty seems to be moving between 4400 and 4700... I think it will remain in the band of 4200 to 4700 for couple of weeks... if good news like recovery of US comes through then it may go up....

Have been looking at making some small amount of money of the stocks which I hold for long term by using covered call option... more on that later...

also trying to see if it is good time to buy some shares of satyam... nothing decided yet... will do something over the weekend and let you guys know...

meanwhile attached is the performance of the stock tip portfolio so far...

NHPC IPO

I subscribed to NHPC IPO mostly for the listing gains...

Over a long term, NTPC looks a better bet with better ROI and growth plans...

IPO closes 12-Aug IST.

Disclaimer: do your due diligence before buying shares or subscribing for IPO.

Performance As Of 05-Aug...

Here is the performance update of the stock tip portfolio...

Sorry have been busy so am not able to do research on new shares....


Thanks to one of my friend Rachit, I came to know about Shriram Finance Non Convertible Debentures. They are giving 11.5% rate for 5 year. The NCD are going to be traded on NSE too. So, in case of liquidity crunch you can always exit. The rate is attractive and safe based on the ratings it has received and past history.

Disclaimer: Do your due diligence before buying NCD or shares.

Central Bank ... Results Updates....

Central bank has posted excellent result. It has posted a profit of 359% over the last year same quarter...

More of that here...

It continues to look promising and with majority of the NREGA to be doled out of central bank it is going to perform better and better in coming days...

It is a good long term bet with potential to be a mulitbagger...

Also attached is the portfolio of tips so far... with NRE zooming up it giving a good return over Nifty.

Performance Of Stock Tips...

I started giving tips from 21st May 2009. Nifty was quoting at 4210 (closing price). Now Nifty is quoting at 4568 a gain of 8.5%...

Stock tips portfolio has gone up by 11.38% over the same period. Actually, the performance of the stock tip portfolio should be much better than 11.38% considering that not all the stock were bought on 4210... but I am not averaging...

JK Tyres

JK Tyres have a posted a good result for quarter ending Jun 2009. The EPS posted is 9 Rs as given here. Currently quoting at 92 Rs, it has a PE of about 10 for this quarter. If we consider three more moderate quarters, its EPS should be around 20 Rs, and PE 4.5...

It has invested 120 cr in OTR manufacturing expansion, its operation commence in Mar 2010. Assuming, it pushes it EPS to conservative of 30 Rs, the PE at current price is only 3. If we factor in the expansion and forward PE of even 8 ( industry average is 10), it should be quoting at 240 in year 2010 Jun or July.

I recommend a buy on JK tyres at current price with buying on dips, for a target of atleast 200 around Jun or July 2010.

Disclaimer: I have some shares of JK tyres at 79 Rs/share. Please do your due diligence before buying any shares.

Gujarat NRE Coke

Gujarat NRE Coke is a great story in making. Its Mar 09 results saw their EPS go down to 2.5 from 5. This resulted in hammering of the stock from highs of 56 to 36 in the current market fall.

They have acquired 3 coal mines which will provide the coking coal required for its various coke plants. Their current capacity is around 1 million tonnes and they are building another plan in nellore, AP which will have another 1 million tonnes capacity... The current EPS does not factor in the 3 coal mines it has acquired.

On conservative estimate in 2011, its capacity should be 2 million tonnes and with coke prices going up (hopefully) their EPS should easily reach 15. If we keep the PE of 16, the price should be around 130 Rs. Current market price is around 39 Rs, which makes this a gain of 300% + in less than 3 years.

I recommend buying Gujarat NRE at current price and keep buying/holding if there is a dip.

Disclaimer: Please do your own due diligence before buying any shares.

Look Who Bought Majorly On 7th July....

When market tanked, look who bought huge amount of shares....


FII are bullish on India and they know that India story is going to continue...

I bought some minor amount of unitech, suzlon, gujarat nre and hfcl....

Disclaimer: Do your own due diligence before buying shares...

Some Shuffling Done...

I booked profit in IVR Prime... well not much  had bought at 71 sold at 72.5 or so.... but on a positive side I got rid of the not so great stock of IVR Prime...

So here is where I moved my profit to....

Suzlon
Unitech
Gujarat NRE
HFCL

ya ya you may ask why HFCL??? well to cut long story short I am having this "junk" stock as it "may" give "good" returns in its "hey days"... I have huge amount of HFCL I am just waiting for some trigger which can push this stock to 20 or so and I exit...

Till then happy investing.... I am again saying this is good time to buy...

Disclaimer: Do your due diligence before buying any shares....

Shares Tip Performance...

I will regularly post the snapshot of the portfolio of shares I give as tips...

Which ever shares I give as tip I have bought the same amounting to 10K INR for each...

Buying Time...

With Budget out, stocks are hammered. There are lot of blue chip stocks available for buying at a cheap price.

I am listing some which I would probably buy if I had money to invest (gave most of spare cash to some one to buy house :-()...

The order given here is not according to the weight-age it is just a random list.

1. Suzlon
2. Unitech
3. IFCI
4. HPCL
5. HINDALCO
6. ROLTA
7. RPOWER
8. GAIL
9. GUJNRE
10. L n T

I might sell some shares of IVR prime and buy some of the above listed one. IVR prime being not so great stock, have not been recommended so far.

Unitech

Unitech has posted moderetely OK result. The stock has been hammered from highs of 500 to 28.5. It bounced back smartly to 120, it pulled back  to 77, now it is quoting at 87 Rs.

Unitech has debt of 7800 cr. and most pundits were thinking that company is going to go belly up and so would be share holders.

Now with second round of QIP, it was able to raise 350 MUSD easy to get its debts down to 5000 cr which is OK for a company of unitech's size.

It has posted moderetely OK result. It is planning to build lost cost house tragetting lower and middle class people which is the largest chunk of indian population. It will post great results going forward. It is still having PE of 15 which is lower than industry average of 19 as given here. This year's EPS is 4.56. With change in strategy of housing and also diversification in telecom, the EPS should go back to 9 Rs. That should make the price atleast double from the current price. If we factor in that it catches up with the industry PE then it would reach 2.5 times the current price around 150 to 175.

I recommend a buy of unitech at 83 to 86 with a target of 150 to 175 Rs in a period of 1 to 1.5 years from now.

Disclaimer: I have some shares of unitech at 40, please do your own due diligence before buying any shares.

Banking Stock With Momentum...

IFCI (Industrial Financial Cooperation Of India) is a momentum stock, it always touches highes when sensex goes up and goes down with sensex.

With new UPA govt in drivers seat, it is all set to zoom again to new highs. The reasons

1. It is going to get banking license.
2. There would be a stake sale.

Last time when stake sale was scheduled, it touched highs of 140 Rs. It is now quoting at 55 Rs. It has gone up from 15 Rs to 55 Rs over the current bull rally.

If you look at the fundamentals, it is quoting at PE of 8.97 as of today, industry average is 11.42. The source is trusted moneycontrol.com.

It is performing OK in the tough market condition which we witnessed in 2008 as given here.

If the company gets a banking license and stake sale talks gather some steam, a conservative estimate would be 100+ in 12 months. If not then it can again go back to lows of 30 or 40. It has very good potential upside with very less down side.

I recommend it to buy at 50 to 55 range, with buying on dips for sure shot 100% returns in a year or so.

Disclaimer: I have some stocks of IFCI at 15.6 INR. Do your own due diligence before buying any stocks.

Booked Profit In RNRL

I sold 50% of my long position in RNRL. The proceeds are given to HPCL. With fiscal deficit climbing, govt has no option but to divest. I am banking with divestment HPCL would be one of the first on the block.

If that happens, then it may zoom to 4 figures in no time. It has almost same revenues as a RIL but it is quoting almost 1/6 to 1/7th time.

I thinking of moving the remaining 50% of RNRL too in to HPCL as RNRL is more of momentum stock. It is rather good to move to some other oil stock like HPCL.

DISCLAIMER: Do your due diligence before investing.

Reliance Power

Reliance power has won back to back contracts for creating power plants in India. They have the largest portfolio for creating power plans in India.

The book value of stock is 54 and PE is 195 against industry average of 27 as given here. All its plant are going to become operational in or around 2012.

It is more of a sentimental stock right now a little over priced at current value of 194.

Considering its potential, I expect the EPS to move from current .42 to 18 atleast once its power plants are operational. Assuming a PE of 26, it should be quoting around 468 in 2012 or so.

It is a very long term buy. I would recommend a buy on every dips of reliance power. If there is a boost in budget about the power sector (which would be there as India needs power very dearly due to lot of deficits in power), this stock will shoot up.

Disclaimer: Do your own due diligence before buying any stocks.

Booked Profits In Unitech and IFCI

I booked profit partially in IFCI And Unitech, the proceeds from that are moved to Gujarat NRE Coke.


So, if you read between the lines you know which one to buy ;-)....

Disclaimer: Do your due diligence before buying any stocks.

GNFC

GNFC (Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertiliser) is one those fertiliser company where Govt of Gujarat has majority stake. It got battered down in past due to one of the decision of Gujarat Govt to have PSU use part of their savings for the social cause. This created a knee jerk reaction and GNFC was battered down from highs to 150 Rs to 98 now.

If you look at the company, its book value is 112 Rs, current market price is 98Rs. Its industry peers are quoting at price/book value of more than 1.5. This one is quoting at .85 of its book value.

The PE of the company is 5.85 where in industry PE is 9.82. If we put a conservative PE of 7 for this company then also it should be quoting around 161 Rs (23 being the EPS of share as per 2008 results).

Looking at the balance sheet for past years, its top line and bottom line both are growing quite handsomely. With Gujarat increasing its agriculture output year on year, it augurs good news for fertiliser companies especially which are based out of Gujarat.

Based on the current scenario, I recommend a buy of GNFC below 105 Rs, the target being 200 Rs by Dec 2010.

Disclaimer: Do your own due diligence before buying stocks.

Rolta India

This mid cap IT stock has been battered down like anything by the FIIs during the recent fall of the sensex. It was quoting around 180+ and it went down to 45 in two weeks time.

Let us look at the details of this stock here. It book value is 81, and PE is 5.72. While IT industry PE is 12.29. Comparing it with the competition, you can see that it is quoting at discount to other companies. E.g. HCL tech book value 51 (CMP 167), wipro book value 71 (CMP 316).

It has presence in Global Imaging Software, Engineering related work. It is expected to get major orders from the nuclear deal with US.

On conservative estimates, if we consider its EPS to be 20 Rs/share compared to current 16 Rs/share. With PE of about 9 (if not 12 as per industry average), then it should be quoting at 180.

I recommend a buy or hold on Rolta for a target of 180 to 200 in 6 months.

Disclaimer: I have some stocks of Rolta at 56 Rs. Please do your due diligence before buying or selling a share.

Hindalco

Hindalco is major aluminum manufacturer of India. In the recent market turmoil, it has been severely battered down by the FIIs. Let us look at its fundamental to gauge where it should be positioned in future.

As per source here, CMP of hindalco is 77 Rs (Closing on 22nd May, 2009). Its PE is 5.40, while the industry PE is 8.48.

The book value of the share is 127 Rs. Current price is at a discount of 40% to the book value.

Lets see its profit loss details as given here. It saw a dip in its operating profit in year 2008. I expect a dip in profit this year too but not substantial as prices of aluminum have more or less stabilised in the year 2008-09. The prices of aluminum are quoting at 10 year low as data given here. With the pick up in infrastructure and housing, the demand for aluminum would go up, resulting in price appreciation. This will increase the margins and profits of Hindalco. If we consider aluminum at conservative 2000 USD/mt in coming year or two, would translate into 40% increase in EPS of hindalco. This would mean the current price is quoting at a PE of only 3 for the year 2010-11.

Considering, the price is below the book value, PE less than industrial average and worst being over for aluminum sector, I recommend a buy on Hindalco with a target of 140 to 150 by March 2010.

Disclaimer: I have some shares of Hindalco at 47 Rs. Please do your due diligence before buying.

Central Bank

Central Bank is one of those PSU bank which is very underrated even after the current rally from 43 to 73. Lets look at its peers and see what could be its reasonable or justifiable target.

Open the competition page here from money control.com

As you notice the book value of CB is 76. All the competitors of central bank are quoting at atleast 1.5 times the book value. Assuming the same, central bank should reach 120 to 150 in short period of time.

Note the PE of most other PSU bank is from 15 to 11, while that of CB is only 6. If we factor a conservative PE of 10, the price should be 116. At current market price of 69, it would be a appreciation of approx 50%.

Almost 80% of the shares are held by the govt, with fiscal deficit going up and financials reforms on the card, this bank my be the prime candidate for divestment. If that happens this stock will shot up.

My target of Central bank is around 150Rs by Dec 2009.

Holding source http://money.rediff.com/companies/central-bank-of-india/14030013/share-holding.

Disclaimer: I have stocks of central bank in my portfolio. Do your due diligence before buying any stocks.