Mahindra Satyam

Lets take a look at the stock of Mahindra Satyam. They are going to declare the result on 29-Sep, for the years in which scam surfaced. First sign of optimistic result is that 29th is a wednesday. Normally, if results are bad, people generally avoid giving them on trading day.

Assuming, that 1/2 of the amount was falsified by one Mr Raju. So, its revenues would be around 4000 crore and profit of around 900 crores. It places Satyam some where in leagues of HCL Tech, Mphasis etc. HCL is having a market cap of currently  29000 crore, Satyam having some 11000 crore. Assuming, the above 1/2 falsified amount, the market cap should quote similar to HCL, so price can see appreciation of another 50 to 100% from the current price.

I have been accumulating this stock for quite some time and have almost 20% of my portfolio built on satyam (not a good idea, but betting on the odds has been a weakness of mine).

If things goes like I said earlier, it can give handsome returns in days to come. Also, once the uncertainty factor is removed from the stock, it is bound to give a direction. Up or down that needs to be seen. I hope it is upward.

I would recommend buying Satyam on dips for a longer term horizon.

Wockhardt

wockhardt... doing great... gave the tip on Jun-2010 ... those who bought it would have made good profits...

looking at the sales turn over and market cap of similar pharma co, it should have a market cap of near 10k cr... currently it is 2.5K cr. So, possible apprecation of another 50 to 100% over a period of 1 to 2 years seems reasonable...

disclaimer: i have some position in this stock from jun-2010. please buy/sell at your own risk.. :-)

Wockhardt

Let me start with stating that this one is truly for bravehearts. It was once upon a time 3 years back it was quoting around 400+, now it is battered down to 136, a slight recovery from 115 its 52 week low.

So how did this happen? well, they wanted to grow inorganically so acquired some debt and also hedged against rupee when rupee was strengthening. With the big crash in 2008/09, the growth went for a toss and rupee started declining against $$, so they were stuck with double whammy. Hence the precipitous fall  from 500+ to 70 and it is slowly recovering.

For some of the previous quarters it has been posting loss after loss and paying huge interest. Lenders are lining up to liquidate this company.

So, with all this bad, why am I recommending it? Well, the promoter stake is still 74% and they have been divesting its non core business to reduce its debt, still it will probably take couple of quarters to get back into black. By that time it would have gone higher. Also, there are news that some MNC might take it over in that case it would be really good for share holders. The promoters are trying hard to come out in black and being a branded name globally it can surely do a turn around.

I recommend to open a small position in this stock (I did it already at current price of 136Rs.) with a target of 400+ in couple of years if things go well.

So it is truly braveheart stock, tread with your own risk as risk reward in this share is extremely high.

IDFC to bring global partner aboard

IDFC to bring global partner aboard: "IDFC?s executive director Vikram Limaye told ET the firm was looking at a strategic partnership ?to either manage the fund or advise foreign flow of funds into the Indian equity market?. He declined to give details."

IDFC is a very good long term bet. It would give atleast 10 to 20% annually compounded... If it reaches 140 to 150 again it is good to accumulate. I hold it from when it was in 75Rs mark during 2009 fall... keep buying on dips...

Long time no see...

Long time I have not posted anything as part of recommendation or updates on what I am buying/selling...

Well I have sold out my entire stake in Unitech at good profit of 70%, was hoping it would go higher. But with bad results and losses in telecom business it was not looking attractive. I am also keeping Suzlon on watch list to sell and move out.

The companies I feel look attractive buy right now are JP Associates, Punj Lloyd (have patience in this one) and Bharat Forge. I have around 20 to 25% of my portfolio in these cos and am increasing my position in them as and when I get some chance.

Also, I have opened some position in gold stocks, around 5% of my portfolio. I recommend putting a systematic investment plan in gold and keep holding for couple of years, it will give better returns for sure.


Also keep watching for deccan gold, mining policy is due this session and it can shoot up. I had recommended it at 40, it is now at 26. I have good position in the same around 5% of my portfolio. Expect this lambi race ka ghoda to go great guns when it starts mining (another 1 to 2 years out) but before mining it would be already accumulated and would have gone up. It can potentially give 100 to 500% returns in 2 to 3 years time frame.

So happy investing/trading or whatever...

Punj Lloyd

Well... I recall giving tip for punj lloyd as investment opportunity when it was battered down from 250 to around 165... Would be couple of months back...

I have bought some punj lloyd today. Have booked some partial profit in relpow and suzlon..

Punj lloyd has good order book and has recently won good contracts. I am expecting it to continue good momentum going forward too...

A good stock to keep in portfolio.. Even reliance power is good stock...

Bharat Forge

Recently I bought some shares of Bharat Forge. It was in auto ancillary segment earlier. Now it has made foray into making engineering equipment for power plants/generation. It's current PE is 44 which makes a bit pricy and over valued. However on a long term basis due to its diversification it can be a multi bagger in years to come.

I recommend it as buy on dips for a long term horizon of 3 to 4 years. With power related infrastructure to be the next boom in India this decade (along with health care) it is worth taking the risk.

I expect the share to provide 100% return on the CMP of 255Rs.

Also recommended for reading is the intelligent investor book by Benjamin Graham. One of my friend Shashi recommended it to me. You can buy it from amazon directly if interested. I have given the link.

JK Tyres ... Target Achieved

JK tyres has reached its target of 200. With the expansion and price hike they have done, it should go higher. Since it has appreciated more than 100p... I recommend booking profits on the 50p of your shares and get your principal out. Rest you can sell when it reaches 280-300.

More tips later. Happy investing... :-)...

Fortis Healthcare

Fortis has been in news recently as it acquired some 24% stake in the Singapore based hospital.

I bought some Fortis around Jan 12, 2010 when I recommended it in this blog.

I think it is still a good buy for a long term as it is now the largest health care player in the country after this acquisition with a global foot print.

If there is a blip in the share price, please consider to buy it. I do not think there would be any major correction in this stock inspite of such a great move this year. Every time there is a rise in the price it never retreats or goes back. It falls max 1 or 2 Rs from recent highs.

I would keep this for atleast 2 years+ as the healthcare is booming in India. I would keep evaluating on quarterly basis to see if there is any change it.

Updates...

Well just wanted to let you know guys...

booked partial profits in central bank, idfc, ifci, hfcl... had to get some liquidity for buying other shares...

bought the following shares...

1. bharti... as i said earlier.. i am accumulating this one on dips...

2. Microtech ... again good company... accumulate on dips kinda...

3. and my favorite satyam... jun/jul is coming pretty soon guys... so hang on to your seat belt or pant belts or whatever ... :-)

=-=-=-=-=
Powered by Bilbo Blogger

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel off late has been in the news due to the acquisition of Zain.

Market has hammered the share price like anything and it has gone/quoted its 52 week low yesterday.

I would advise to start building position in Bharti Airtel on this fall as it is bound to bounce back. Over a long period of time (say around 2 to 3 years) the fruits of acquisition would start bearing. That time the stock would be scaling new highs.

I would be taking some of my money out of quintegra, hfcl and move to Bharti Airtel as I see it as a very good buy at today's price of 268 Rs.

Lagi Lagi Lagi...

general time pass post...

lagi lagi lagi.. upper circuit lagi... lagi lagi lagi.. upper circuit lagi.. :D...

go quintegra...

HFCL ....

HFCL is showing good resistance... however in this fall, I booked some partial profit in it and moved the proceeds to reliance power, satyam.

Advice those who bought HFCL at 14 when tip was given to book partial profit. 15% profit in couple of week ain't bad... ;-)...

happy trading/investing...

Hindalco ...

Sorry wanted to post this earlier when the results were announced. Seems the results are below expectation of the street hence he stock went down.

I too am out of Hindalco totally. Made some cool 200+% profit in holding it for 1.5 years.

Next question would be where did I move my money to ???

Well, I have bought the following shares.

1. My current favorite and accumulate on dips - Satyam. Eagerly waiting for July to come...;-)

2. Long term favorite and keep holding for 2 to 3 years one - Reliance Power and NHPC.

Due to some restrictions, was not able to utilise the same money for buying Quintegra. May be tomorrow or Monday's trade day I would be able to do that. Till than wait.

Accumulate on Dips....

Wow what a crash of the market over couple of days... from 5200+ to 4900+ and back

During these days I booked entire profit in JK Tyres (it has some steam left, as results are good so it can go further up ... may be 200 or 220) and MRF.

The proceed went to the following.

1. Satyam - I am firm believer come July 2010, when results are out, the stock is going to zoom, may be fetching around 100% return, I will book partial profit at that time and keep holding till I get multibagger kind of returns...

2. Fortis - The results are too good to miss this out, yesterday when market fell, it still went up showing the strength in the stock.

3. Microtech - It is kind of hidden from MF. Once it is noticed it will go up, a PE of 3.5 with book value of 243, stock is at a huge discount at 184 now. I am accumulating this too on dips.

Have opened some position on quintegra for short term play, may be max of couple of months.

NSE Holidays

Here is the list of NSE holidays ...

1. New Year - 1st January 2010 - Friday

2 Republic Day - 26th January 2010 - Tuesday

3 Mahashivratri - 12th February 2010 - Friday

4 Holi (2nd Day) - 1st March 2010 - Monday

5 Ram Navmi - 24th March 2010 - Wednesday

6 Good Friday - 2nd April 2010 - Friday

7 Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti - 14th April 2010 - Wednesday

8 Ramzan Id - 10th September 2010 - Friday

9 Diwali Amavasya (Laxmi Puja) - 5th November 2010 - Friday

10 Bakri-Id - 17th November 2010 - Wednesday

11 Moharum - 17th December 2010 - Friday

Looking at the holiday list it sounds really absurd to me that there are 3 holidays for muslim festivals out of the total 7 holidays which are religious in nature ... I wonder how many muslim traders are there... If I recall or understand, it is against Islam to put money in bank giving interest and stock market is big NO NO... so majority muslims would not be in stock market... so if they are not in stock market then why have holidays on muslim festivals???

I wonder why NSE does not change this holiday list ot be more practical and in line with the broker/trading community without any bias... let it be more democratic... or may be NSE and BSE are following dictact from Govt???

Quintegra ....

I am going to again take some risk and plunge in to quintegra... quoting at 14.4 or something... it is pure speculative play... a quick move in and out in month... profit can be anywhere from -50% to 100%...

Recommended only to very very strong heart with apetite to loose some money if it does not work out...

The stock used to quote at 35 odd in hey days... it is at 14... i picked up some when it was in single digit and sold it around 14 earlier... since it has stabilized and I have some liquidity with me... would try my luck again and see if this gives some profit to a poor guy...

so long... happy investing/trading...

HFCL On the Rolls...

Just as I was typing the previous blog putting HFCL for strong heart with risk taking abilities, it shot up later in the day... It went up by 20% circuit.... wiping my loses in HFCL... and it had still some 1 cr shares buy order pending with no sellers available.... so some one seems to be accumulating the stock... might be they know something we do not....

with 3G auction nearing... I believe it is around mid Feb this year, it will gather further steam.. it is first in line for getting 2G auction... with no spectrum available to new players... any global giant who is not in India and want to come in has to take over or partner with existing co with license... HFCL probably would fit that bucket... but then again these are wishes.. but you never know when this ghoda (horse) will run... I expect another couple of days of circuit max... taking it to 18 to 20 zone may be... will book some partial profit and put money in micro tech and fortis....

Some Reshuffling and Tips...

I booked some partial profits in JK Tyres (tips give when quoting at 80... now at 158), MRF (sorry no tips given on this :-)), and Gujarat NRE (tips given @37.. now quoting at 89... sure time to book profit in this one)...

so to sum it all I would recommend booking profit in JK Tyres, Gujarat NRE and yes Hindalco... book partial profit... may be take your principal out and keep the remaining shares as fokat (free)... enjoi....

now coming to the proceeds....

have moved it to fortis healthcare.... for a long term.... healthcare in India would be big time industry going forward so would be accumulating this on dips...

next one is odd man out... Micro Technologies... currently quoting at 206... it is in IT but exclusively on security side... its book value is 243... and EPS is 70... making its PE 3.x ... over 5 years it has grown 10 times from 25cr turnover to 250cr turnover ... this year would make probably 300cr... which would be good... only concern is promoter holding is 36% or so... while they have pledged some 1/3 of the stock.... reserves are in some hundreds of crores... I am not sure why they pledge their shares... still taking some risk for longer term...

BTW... did you check out quintegra.. it is now at 15... remember giving the trader tip at 10... cool 50% in a month... sorry I didnt put anything in the stock this time...

I would be watching out for HFCL .. with 3G auction nearing it is becoming too hot to handle... though I have some exposure in it... Only for very strong heart... it can go 40 or it can 5 or go out of business... currently quoting at 12... so do your own due dilegence...

Disclaimer: As usual... please do your own due diligence before investing in any shares mentioned above... and yes I do have position in almost all the shares mentioned above.... :-)...