Hindalco ...

Sorry wanted to post this earlier when the results were announced. Seems the results are below expectation of the street hence he stock went down.

I too am out of Hindalco totally. Made some cool 200+% profit in holding it for 1.5 years.

Next question would be where did I move my money to ???

Well, I have bought the following shares.

1. My current favorite and accumulate on dips - Satyam. Eagerly waiting for July to come...;-)

2. Long term favorite and keep holding for 2 to 3 years one - Reliance Power and NHPC.

Due to some restrictions, was not able to utilise the same money for buying Quintegra. May be tomorrow or Monday's trade day I would be able to do that. Till than wait.

Some Reshuffling and Tips...

I booked some partial profits in JK Tyres (tips give when quoting at 80... now at 158), MRF (sorry no tips given on this :-)), and Gujarat NRE (tips given @37.. now quoting at 89... sure time to book profit in this one)...

so to sum it all I would recommend booking profit in JK Tyres, Gujarat NRE and yes Hindalco... book partial profit... may be take your principal out and keep the remaining shares as fokat (free)... enjoi....

now coming to the proceeds....

have moved it to fortis healthcare.... for a long term.... healthcare in India would be big time industry going forward so would be accumulating this on dips...

next one is odd man out... Micro Technologies... currently quoting at 206... it is in IT but exclusively on security side... its book value is 243... and EPS is 70... making its PE 3.x ... over 5 years it has grown 10 times from 25cr turnover to 250cr turnover ... this year would make probably 300cr... which would be good... only concern is promoter holding is 36% or so... while they have pledged some 1/3 of the stock.... reserves are in some hundreds of crores... I am not sure why they pledge their shares... still taking some risk for longer term...

BTW... did you check out quintegra.. it is now at 15... remember giving the trader tip at 10... cool 50% in a month... sorry I didnt put anything in the stock this time...

I would be watching out for HFCL .. with 3G auction nearing it is becoming too hot to handle... though I have some exposure in it... Only for very strong heart... it can go 40 or it can 5 or go out of business... currently quoting at 12... so do your own due dilegence...

Disclaimer: As usual... please do your own due diligence before investing in any shares mentioned above... and yes I do have position in almost all the shares mentioned above.... :-)...

Hindalco....

Hindalco reached its target.... 150... around 3 months prior to the target date... I booked partial profit and moved the money to RNRL and RELPOW...

I am still buying satyam on dips... it is still to pick up.. once the result date nears... which would be in July 2010... it will start gathering steam...

Hindalco

Hindalco is major aluminum manufacturer of India. In the recent market turmoil, it has been severely battered down by the FIIs. Let us look at its fundamental to gauge where it should be positioned in future.

As per source here, CMP of hindalco is 77 Rs (Closing on 22nd May, 2009). Its PE is 5.40, while the industry PE is 8.48.

The book value of the share is 127 Rs. Current price is at a discount of 40% to the book value.

Lets see its profit loss details as given here. It saw a dip in its operating profit in year 2008. I expect a dip in profit this year too but not substantial as prices of aluminum have more or less stabilised in the year 2008-09. The prices of aluminum are quoting at 10 year low as data given here. With the pick up in infrastructure and housing, the demand for aluminum would go up, resulting in price appreciation. This will increase the margins and profits of Hindalco. If we consider aluminum at conservative 2000 USD/mt in coming year or two, would translate into 40% increase in EPS of hindalco. This would mean the current price is quoting at a PE of only 3 for the year 2010-11.

Considering, the price is below the book value, PE less than industrial average and worst being over for aluminum sector, I recommend a buy on Hindalco with a target of 140 to 150 by March 2010.

Disclaimer: I have some shares of Hindalco at 47 Rs. Please do your due diligence before buying.