Mahindra Satyam

Lets take a look at the stock of Mahindra Satyam. They are going to declare the result on 29-Sep, for the years in which scam surfaced. First sign of optimistic result is that 29th is a wednesday. Normally, if results are bad, people generally avoid giving them on trading day.

Assuming, that 1/2 of the amount was falsified by one Mr Raju. So, its revenues would be around 4000 crore and profit of around 900 crores. It places Satyam some where in leagues of HCL Tech, Mphasis etc. HCL is having a market cap of currently  29000 crore, Satyam having some 11000 crore. Assuming, the above 1/2 falsified amount, the market cap should quote similar to HCL, so price can see appreciation of another 50 to 100% from the current price.

I have been accumulating this stock for quite some time and have almost 20% of my portfolio built on satyam (not a good idea, but betting on the odds has been a weakness of mine).

If things goes like I said earlier, it can give handsome returns in days to come. Also, once the uncertainty factor is removed from the stock, it is bound to give a direction. Up or down that needs to be seen. I hope it is upward.

I would recommend buying Satyam on dips for a longer term horizon.

Updates...

Well just wanted to let you know guys...

booked partial profits in central bank, idfc, ifci, hfcl... had to get some liquidity for buying other shares...

bought the following shares...

1. bharti... as i said earlier.. i am accumulating this one on dips...

2. Microtech ... again good company... accumulate on dips kinda...

3. and my favorite satyam... jun/jul is coming pretty soon guys... so hang on to your seat belt or pant belts or whatever ... :-)

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HFCL ....

HFCL is showing good resistance... however in this fall, I booked some partial profit in it and moved the proceeds to reliance power, satyam.

Advice those who bought HFCL at 14 when tip was given to book partial profit. 15% profit in couple of week ain't bad... ;-)...

happy trading/investing...

Hindalco ...

Sorry wanted to post this earlier when the results were announced. Seems the results are below expectation of the street hence he stock went down.

I too am out of Hindalco totally. Made some cool 200+% profit in holding it for 1.5 years.

Next question would be where did I move my money to ???

Well, I have bought the following shares.

1. My current favorite and accumulate on dips - Satyam. Eagerly waiting for July to come...;-)

2. Long term favorite and keep holding for 2 to 3 years one - Reliance Power and NHPC.

Due to some restrictions, was not able to utilise the same money for buying Quintegra. May be tomorrow or Monday's trade day I would be able to do that. Till than wait.

Accumulate on Dips....

Wow what a crash of the market over couple of days... from 5200+ to 4900+ and back

During these days I booked entire profit in JK Tyres (it has some steam left, as results are good so it can go further up ... may be 200 or 220) and MRF.

The proceed went to the following.

1. Satyam - I am firm believer come July 2010, when results are out, the stock is going to zoom, may be fetching around 100% return, I will book partial profit at that time and keep holding till I get multibagger kind of returns...

2. Fortis - The results are too good to miss this out, yesterday when market fell, it still went up showing the strength in the stock.

3. Microtech - It is kind of hidden from MF. Once it is noticed it will go up, a PE of 3.5 with book value of 243, stock is at a huge discount at 184 now. I am accumulating this too on dips.

Have opened some position on quintegra for short term play, may be max of couple of months.

Hindalco....

Hindalco reached its target.... 150... around 3 months prior to the target date... I booked partial profit and moved the money to RNRL and RELPOW...

I am still buying satyam on dips... it is still to pick up.. once the result date nears... which would be in July 2010... it will start gathering steam...

Satyam Updates

Well satyam got battered today, has gone down by 8%.... well I booked partial profit in central bank like I said in earlier post. Have moved the proceeds to satyam. I feel satyam is going to come out with very strong results in July. And every dip like this in Satyam I feel is buying opportunity.

Ups and Downs...

The past two weeks has seen some great seesaw. From highs of 5100 it went down to 4500 and then again we are now at 4800. 4500 gave a great opportunity to buy good stocks which would fetch handsome returns in future.

Suzlon energy got beaten down to 53. I bought some stocks on dips on two lots, at 54 and at 63.

Similarly reliance power got hammered, I bought some at 143. Wait till Dadri plant goes live in 2011 or 2012 it would go and reach 400. If you can keep it for for 5 years it will give multibagger kind of result. Compare it with Tata Power and you will understand what I am referring to.

I am again saying Satyam is a great story in making. Get it before the results are declared in Jul, there is still some time, but then you may not find it at 100Rs for long. It will catch with the big boys once the audited accounts are out. It recently got 300M deal, along with that its order book will continue to grow, it will not fall.

I booked profits in HOCL and partial profits in JK tyres. Moved the proceeds to suzlon, reliance power and satyam.

One trader stock which I would recommend for strong heart people is deccan gold. I have bought it at multiple price. They are in exploration and production of gold. With gold prices going up like anything, this thing will fly. The only stumbling block, which is huge one, is govt. It is taking long time to form mining policy and hence it is taking long time for deccan gold to start mining golds from couple of areas where they have found gold. Hopefully, this winter session the mining policy gets frozen. If that happens this would easily reach 50 to 60 Rs. It is currently quoting at 39Rs. Though this is a braveheart stock, I will put it in the list of stock tips portfolio. So, if you are ready to gamble a little, go ahead with deccan gold. If you are conservative in nature then please stay away from it.

Another trader stock is Quintegra Solution. Currently quoting at 8.95. I would wait till it goes to 6 before plunging in. It oscillates from 6 to 15 Rs range and can give quick returns in short span of time. Again this is extremely risky stock so depending on your appetite you can take your decision. I made some little money in this stock in 2 months time when I bought at 7 and sold around 14 some months ago.

Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before buying any stock.

Satyam....

The satyam saga has come to an end long time back... Mahindra got what it needed to bring its IT division to big boy's league consisting of Infy, TCS, Wipro....

The reason satyam is being recommended that inspite of the scandal.. it is still a 2 BUSD company... and it is trading at a PE of only 5.8 when the industry PE is 18... with good management in place it wont take long for FII to come back to the shares in herd like they used to do in past... expect this share to be added to F&O segment too.

On a conservative estimate the stock would be rerated and would make it to 200 Rs easily in a year's time.

I recommend a buy on satyam purely on the basis of its fundamentals which got ignored because of the scandal...

Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before buying any shares.

I bought some shares of satyam today.

Updates....

Nifty seems to be moving between 4400 and 4700... I think it will remain in the band of 4200 to 4700 for couple of weeks... if good news like recovery of US comes through then it may go up....

Have been looking at making some small amount of money of the stocks which I hold for long term by using covered call option... more on that later...

also trying to see if it is good time to buy some shares of satyam... nothing decided yet... will do something over the weekend and let you guys know...

meanwhile attached is the performance of the stock tip portfolio so far...